Nate Noy Ahead in Ohio-2 Vote Count
By Nate Noy
Yesterday the folks at the Survey USA poll released an updated poll showing 48% of likely voters currently behind Jean Schmidt, 40% with Vic Wulsin and 12% either with me, Nate Noy, or undecided. Various media outlets and blogs reported these results with the headline “Jean Schmidt ahead 8 points in OH-2 or Jean Schmidt winning.”
There is a serious fallacy in the above headlines. Here is why:
(1) What 500 or so voters would do if the election were held on October 17 is hardly a valid indicator of what 200,000 voters will likely do in three weeks. A lot can and WILL change between now and November 7.
(2) 77% of the voters in this district are Independent! The poll only uses a fraction of these likely voters in its results.
(3) We are not even sure where these 500 people live. A valid poll should represent 77% independent voters with a consistent breakdown by county. About 20% of the voters reside in the rural counties, my guess is Survey USA did not venture outside of the 513 area code when they conducted their poll. If this poll were conducted in Loveland, Ohio (Jean’s hometown) then one would expect her to be winning, if it were conducted in Piketon, Ohio then Nate Noy would have 80% of the vote.
The only way a candidate is “winning” this race is if ballots have already been cast. I personally know a number of people that have already voted absentee, and they have ALL already voted for ME, NOT Vic or Jean.
Additionally there are still at least four major candidate forum events that will take place between now and November 7. Factor in the various television interviews that have yet to air and what I’m about to say makes perfect logical sense.
Our internal polling shows in excess of 70% of the voters in OH-2 are undecided. That’s right 70%. A lot will happen between now and November 7, and one thing I’m certain of is that no candidate has secured enough votes as of today to be considered “winning” this election.
You WILL NOT see the media report a 70% undecided number. Why is that you ask? Because 70% undecided does not sell newspapers or get viewers to watch the nightly news. However, it is the truth! Something the media loves to overlook this time of year.
Nate
Yesterday the folks at the Survey USA poll released an updated poll showing 48% of likely voters currently behind Jean Schmidt, 40% with Vic Wulsin and 12% either with me, Nate Noy, or undecided. Various media outlets and blogs reported these results with the headline “Jean Schmidt ahead 8 points in OH-2 or Jean Schmidt winning.”
There is a serious fallacy in the above headlines. Here is why:
(1) What 500 or so voters would do if the election were held on October 17 is hardly a valid indicator of what 200,000 voters will likely do in three weeks. A lot can and WILL change between now and November 7.
(2) 77% of the voters in this district are Independent! The poll only uses a fraction of these likely voters in its results.
(3) We are not even sure where these 500 people live. A valid poll should represent 77% independent voters with a consistent breakdown by county. About 20% of the voters reside in the rural counties, my guess is Survey USA did not venture outside of the 513 area code when they conducted their poll. If this poll were conducted in Loveland, Ohio (Jean’s hometown) then one would expect her to be winning, if it were conducted in Piketon, Ohio then Nate Noy would have 80% of the vote.
The only way a candidate is “winning” this race is if ballots have already been cast. I personally know a number of people that have already voted absentee, and they have ALL already voted for ME, NOT Vic or Jean.
Additionally there are still at least four major candidate forum events that will take place between now and November 7. Factor in the various television interviews that have yet to air and what I’m about to say makes perfect logical sense.
Our internal polling shows in excess of 70% of the voters in OH-2 are undecided. That’s right 70%. A lot will happen between now and November 7, and one thing I’m certain of is that no candidate has secured enough votes as of today to be considered “winning” this election.
You WILL NOT see the media report a 70% undecided number. Why is that you ask? Because 70% undecided does not sell newspapers or get viewers to watch the nightly news. However, it is the truth! Something the media loves to overlook this time of year.
Nate
posted by natenoy | 1:26 AM
2 Comments:
Nate, just because they're independent voters, doesn't mean they're going to write you in, idiot.
Wow, you have got to be kidding me.
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